Friday, June 15, 2012

Still looks like a struggle to pin options

I'd say today's action looks like a struggle to pin options, the SPY just below $134, even at $134 the $134's are virtually useless unless you exercised them and there doesn't seem to be much point.

It looks like there's been just about enough Carrot dangling to keep the market feeling "OK" about the Greek elections, if things go toward Syriza and a possible if not probable Greek exit, there have been enough "ambiguous" comments about Central banks action which is what bulls in the market want, but there hasn't been any firm commitment from the banks, although I suspect they'd do whatever they have to on a Syriza win which would likely take the entire EU financial sector down should they come to power and exit the Eurozone.

So there seems to be a struggle to keep a lid on Central Bank easing enthusiasm just enough to get today's pin off.

I still like the 30-60 min charts that are very positive for the sub-intermediate trend (what I'm trying to define with that is a trend longer than a few weeks, but probably not game changing) and have kept the leveraged long hedge positions in place. It looks very likely we'll see a Euro short squeeze and with that the market sees a short squeeze.

There's simply no way to predict how many different ways this (results from the Greek election) could go down. There's the overall trend that develops and then there's likely huge volatility with swings from one day to the next over the coming week.

However as mentioned, I still like the original game plan, holding the long term shorts that are in the green with the leveraged longs that could not only make a few extra bucks, but also hedge out some of the upside risk to core shorts. The EU is in a situation where a black swan could come just about any day, that's the reason I prefer to hold the core short positions rather than trade around them (as I would usually do).

Just having taken a quick look, the pesky High Yield Credit has stabilized today, it's not looking great, but better than earlier.

I'm going to try to get some charts on China up next.





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