Friday, June 22, 2012

Risk Asset Update

This layout has a lot of leading indicators and is excellent at showing or confirming the trend expectations through divergences.

A couple of days ago when I was expecting a pullback, I had hoped that we'd get some positive divergence on this layout which would increase the probabilities of more upside for the sub-intermediate trend, at worst, at least have confirmation. I'm pretty happy with what I see thus far.

 CONTEXT for ES is in a positive position, thus I would expect specific components in the Risk Asset layout to be positive.

 Commodities on this 5 min multi-day chart are in line with the SPX here, that's good enough.

 High Yield Credit held up well today, it didn't make the new high that the SPX made in the afternoon on an intraday basis, but the overall position is positive.

 Here's the positive divergence I hoped to see in to a pullback as HY credit is the big boys way of expressing a risk on posture.

 High Yield Corp. Credit looks good intraday.

 Longer term it also is in a leading positive divergence

 Yields acted well intraday

 Yields went from being highly suspect to jumping back in line

 The $AUD is nearly perfectly in line

 The Euro didn't make a new high intraday, I suspect that is why we were seeing some of the 1 min negative divergences in the closing hour.

Sectors today-all of the 3 main sectors I watch outperformed the SPX today-Tech, Financials and Energy.

All in all, I'm happy with the way things look here. The market is never going to make it easy to make money, luckily we have a lot of indictors that the crowd isn't looking at.

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