Thursday, July 12, 2012

Just a head's up

Just to give you an opinion here...

Earlier I mentioned a negative 1 min divergence and made the distinction between a pullback and correction, since then we've pretty much seen a correction. I wouldn't be surprised to see some downside volatility, especially with resistance from the gap in the area, which would bring shorts in and frustrate them again, but overall the market looks better and better for another short term move higher, perhaps in to last Friday's gap area, maybe more. Here's what I mean

 Remember this 1 min leading negative divergence? I thought it would either pullback intraday or consolidate sideways.

 It's been pretty much a sideways consolidation, bears see this as a loss of upside momentum, a failed gap fill attempt, etc so the market may throw them some downside confirmation to drag them back in on the short side.

However the longer the timeframe, the more important it is and we have been looking at leading positive position 1-5 min divergences, take a look at the 5 min chart below.

 The 3 min suggests to me the market may give the shorts a little bone to get them in, the more shorts, the easier it is to move the market higher.

The 5 min chart has no signs of any negative divergences and is leading positive. I wish I had taken the time this a.m. to place a long trade on the idea of this gap down being fadd to the upside, it would have made for at least a decent quick trade, but I feel pretty confident that we'll see a move to the upside so I'm not too concerned with any intraday noise between now and then.

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