Risk Layout Update-Interesting

I did find some interesting things in the Risk Layout update, I'm guessing we are seeing a shakeout right now, it may have originally been caused by Australian unemployment which put  lot of pressure on the $AUD which is an important currency for the market, but it seems that the move down is being taken advantage of (remember the near term 3C charts are almost all in some sort of leading positive territory). There's still some instability in the layout in areas I have been concerned about such as the Euro and Yields, but yields at least seem to be improving.

Take a look

 Commodities seem to be roughly in line with the SPX intraday, however...

 The relative momentum over a longer time period shows them holding up better than the SPX which is a bit interesting, especially given the FX legacy arbitrage correlation.

 Commodities are brown, the SPY is green and the Euro blue, according to this and the typical correlation, both the SPY/SPX and commodities are holding up much better than would be anticipated. This could be viewed as a negative divergence on this layout, but there's not widespread confirmation across it. We noticed some strange activity in 3C Tuesday and thought maybe it resolved yesterday, but seeing commodities hold up better than the SPX makes me wonder if in fact something did come out Tuesday that smart money is aware of, commodities would have a lot to gain from the dollar debasement that comes along with Quantitative Easing, although that's wild speculation right now, it could explain this chart and other strange activity this week.

 Very strange is the run UP in High Yield Credit this morning, this usually would lead the market and as such I expected to see it down today, not moving up aggressively.

 On a longer term basis, today's move is evident even on a longer term chart, it's pretty strong as well, which adds a little more credibility to the theory proposed earlier that price weakness may in fact be under accumulation and that may indeed be the very reason for the weakness. Again, these are bits of the puzzle, not the complete picture, but it would fit with recent 3C activity over the last 2 days.

 HY Corporate Credit is in line intraday, but it did see a drop overnight. I suppose there may be less risk in HY credit right now than HY corp credit.

 On a longer term basis, HY Corp Credit is still in a supportive area (not dislocated from the SPX), but in red you can see the drop.

 Intraday Yields which have been bothersome are seeing improvement, this fits with improvement in the market and fading the gap (again this is not the full picture, but a piece that fits).

 Longer term, here's where Yields dislocated negatively from the market, the market followed (this is why I like Yields as a leading indicator-they tend to attract the market like a magnet), but look at the recent improvement in that Yields are moving laterally instead of down.

 The $AUD intraday

 With quite a drop from overnight on weak Australian jobs data, however it still is not negatively dislocated from the SPX.

Finally the Euro intraday, pretty much in line with the market.

I have more homework to do, but as of now I suspect that we may be seeing some accumulation of price weakness that may have originally started with weak Australian jobs data and perhaps got a little helping hand to the downside.