Friday, July 6, 2012

Market Update-Intraday Jiggles

I often say (because the market often shows us), "The market is never going to make anything easy". No matter how right you may be on the market direction, the market is going to throw barrels like Donkey Kong for a couple of simple reasons, 1) It's a zero sum game, for someone to win, someone has to lose and even those who are right on the market's direction are going to have their faith tested as the market tries to knock as many of these people out of positions. 2) There's more profit for Wall Street in creating shakeouts as volume typically accompanies shakeouts as stops or limit orders are triggered and as if Wall Street doesn't already make enough money, they make additional money in the form of volume rebates for order flow-in fact there are several firms that specialize in order flow volume rebates, such as proprietary trading firms and many High Frequency Trading programs. 3) is kind of a wrap of what's already been said, but if the market simply does what you expect, such as trends down all day, it's the same concept as very high short interest except on an intraday basis; THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE ON ONE SIDE OF THE BOAT and Wall Street needs people to trade against, not with.

This update doesn't change anything I've said about my opinion on the pullback, I just consider this intraday noise, but it can be useful to enter or exit positions and knowing what it is, that it is normal, hopefully will keep you from being a victim of volatility shakeouts.

As for the market update...

 DIA 5 min has an intraday leading positive divergence, it's hard to see or at least doesn't look meaningful in the context of things, but it's there so I'd expect an intraday move, maybe even a gap fill.

 SPY 3 min intraday leading positive divergence suggesting an intraday move up from here.

 QQQ 5 min intraday leading positive divergence, suggesting a pop to the upside, but look at the same chart with a little more context...

The 5 min QQQ's intraday positive divergence is just a small blip within the bigger picture's leading negative divergence. So look for some probable upside noise, if you can use it to your advantage that's great, otherwise this is just a warning of what to expect as the most probable path intraday.


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