Friday, July 6, 2012

Nimble

I'm glad I closed those UVXY calls for a 1 day 23% gain, look what they'd be worth right now...

They are now below yesterday's close.

Here's the reason I closed them...

As mentioned in this post... I'm not a huge fan of short term trading, at least not this kind of short term trading, but as the charts in this post have shown, we have seen just about ZERO movement in the market over the last 4 months while volatility has doubled, this means short term trades are about twice as profitable as they were 4 months ago, but they need to be watched closely and closed out quickly when there are signals such as the signals seen in UVXY (linked above) and the market in general today.

There are longer term trending trades available. Of the core short positions we built and I have held, several are at gains of 10-20% with no options, no leverage. The long positions added for reasons I'm sure you are well aware of, were added at key areas as well and those positions are at gains of 10-20%, in fact, in the equities model portfolio there are 6 shorts and 4 longs, only 1 position is at a loss, 5% in one of the longs, but these trades I don't even look at, I haven't closed any since opening them, so it is possible to establish longer term trending positions and see good profits (gains of over 20% in a market that has moved about 0% since these positions were opened), just goes to show you it can be done, the key remains to be patient and let the trade come to you.

As you saw in today's sentiment update, one of the traders who is considered to be a good trader, was just knocked out of the game. This market is a meat grinder, but it's possible to make money in it (even when it hasn't moved in 4 months!). You need to know what you are comfortable with and wait for that nice pitch down the middle before you swing. I feel pretty good about having 10 long and short positions and numerous short term trades that have made good money in 1-3 days and I don't even have time to really make these trades, so you can certainly do it. In fact many of you are doing it by the emails I receive every day.

This is the difference between having an edge and treating trading like a business and wondering around the market from 1 system to another, wildly swinging at any price movement.

I'll have updates over the weekend and maybe a few more tonight. I hope you all have a great, relaxing weekend!


No comments: