AAPL Update

As mentioned in the BIDU update, there's a chance BIDU or better probabilities, AAPL, may make an intraday/day head fake upside move, I'd consider this a gift to short in to if it were to come.

AAPL looks like a higher probability and I'll show you why, I'll also show you why I would consider it a gift to short in to.

 AAPL is a good example thus far of a "Crazy Ivan" shakeout, I call it this from the movie, "The Hunt For Red October" about a highly advanced new Russian submarine and the tactics sumariners use to follow and track their targets. Submarines will try to get right behind the sub they are following as the noise of the following submarine is not heard as it is lost in the baffles/prop wash of the sub they are following. The Russians deal with this by making a 180 degree turn toward any sub that may be following and thereby exposing the sub's acoustical signature.

Here in AAPL we have a bullish flag, technical traders expect it to break to the upside, but it first saw a head fake move to the downside knocking any weak longs out of their trades, just look at volume on the day AAPL moved below the flag, that's longs being stopped out. Then a move to the upside is made, shorts are now knocked out of the trade and longs start to re-enter, a subsequent move from here back down and below the flag will have shaken out everyone and give AAPL a jump start on downside momentum as longs sell at a loss and shorts enter, that adds up to a lot of supply and little demand to soak it up which leads to lower prices, as with all head fake moves, they kick start the momentum of the final direction.

 On an intraday/15 min chart we see a triangle, technically a bearish triangle as it is descending, a move above this would bring in longs and cause shorts to cover, a move down after that, completing the head fake, would add to the downside momentum needed to move AAPL below the daily bull flag. This pattern is pretty obvious in probably the most watched stock in the market, the stops and limit orders are most likely lined up already, it would almost be a shame not to hit them, but it would provide us with a high probability short entry at a better price with less risk.

As for 3C

 The 1 min chart shows nothing of interest, but the 2 min chart shows a positive divergence, just the length and strength needed to make such a move, but no where near strong enough to sustain it.

 The 3 min chart shows the same positive divergence in the same area, even though the bigger, more powerful trend is the leading negative AAPL is currently in since moving back in to the bull flag. Remember the post I showed you that proved there were no positive divergences/accumulation in the bullish flag, but rather a series of divergences that looked like they were there just to create the daily flag?

 As far as sustainability of any such head fake, this 5 min chart should answer that question, thus such a move is looking more and more like a gift to those who are brave enough to short it, but we don't need just bravery, we also want 3C confirmation of the head fake, by the looks of these charts, we would get it.

I've made the longer term case for AAPL numerous times, that's not what this post is about, but just to remind you, here's a 30 min chart of AAPL in a leading negative divergence at the bull flag and in yellow, the price pattern I'm addressing above.