Friday, August 10, 2012

Overnight and in to the open

It's just time?

This will be rather short, there wasn't much overnight except the Chinese Trade Balance missed expectations, most of the trade overnight though was risk averse and based on the breaking of technical levels.

In Europe Spanish and Italian 10 year yields are creeping higher toward 7% and 6% respectively.

In the US, the only data out this morning is Import/Export prices

Released On 8/10/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Export Prices - M/M change-1.7 %-0.1 %-1.0 % to 0.3 %0.5 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change-2.1 %-1.2 %
Import Prices - M/M change-2.7 %0.2 %-1.0 % to 1.0 %-0.6 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change-2.6 %-3.2 %


Bloomberg's take:
Deflation, or rather disinflation, may not be at play right now given continued pricing power for services, but prices for many goods are on the retreat. Import prices fell 0.6 percent in July for the fourth straight decline and the third straight sharp decline. And contraction isn't isolated to swings in oil prices as import prices excluding petroleum fell 0.3 percent for a third straight decline. Year-on-year, total import prices are at minus 3.2 percent with the ex-petroleum reading at minus 0.5 percent for the largest year-on-year drop in nearly 3 years.

A look at finished goods also points to contraction. Import prices for consumer goods are down 0.1 percent for a second straight negative reading with import prices for capital goods down 0.1 percent for the third negative reading in 4 months. A shift over to the export side shows consumer prices down 0.6 percent in the month with capital goods prices down 0.1 percent.

Total export prices do show pricing power, up 0.5 percent but following contractions of 1.7 percent and 0.5 percent in the prior two months. Year-on-year, total export prices are down 1.2 percent. Inflation for agricultural products is appearing with the component jumping a monthly 6.4 percent but this follows a 3.6 percent fall in June. Excluding agriculture, export prices are down 0.3 for a year-on-year rate of minus 1.9 percent.

Though the rise in agricultural prices is a concern, today's report won't raise much inflation alarm for next week's producer and consumer price reports. There's no significant reaction in the financial markets to today's report


Also of interest, especially right before the elections as Bush did something similar at the end of his term before elections, something similar being knocking down oil prices. Yesterday the CME hiked margins on petroleum products by an average of 3.7%-seems a little politically motivated, but what do I know?

What I do know is that there wasn't much market moving in the news, yet the market moved. There was however a number of posts about underlying trade capped off by this one yesterday after the close, "The Big 3"

Opening indications to follow....

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