Wednesday, August 8, 2012

AAPL Update

If I had anymore room in the core short positions for AAPL, I'd add to it. I may look at seeing if another options position is possible.

There appears to be some VERY short term upside coming, the charts that really matter to me though and what has kept my AAPL Core short profitable since March (?) are looking bad, like this is where I'd like to add to the equity short, the options are a little different because the timing issue is more crucial, yet I have an open put there that I'm not concerned about.

As I have said before, even if you had a crystal ball and knew exactly what was coming in a week or so, the market is NEVER going to make it easy for you, that is why I remind you every now and then of Jesse Livermore's comments about why and how he made money when so many others were of the same opinion as him and they lost money, it was because of (in his words), "His sitting", meaning seeing the big picture and not panicking every time an intraday or daily move went against his view, it's having the courage of your convictions which is good if you have an edge, not so good if you are just gambling.

The charts...

 This is the least influential chart, a 1 min intraday chart used for intraday moves, there appear to be several positive divergences, although they can often just lead to a consolidation and they can be run over as well.

 The 2 min chart should show some of that positive activity if it had any real strength to it, it didn't bleed through to the next timeframe, I don't think it's very strong at all.

 The more important 5 min chart and its trend in a leading negative position as AAPL has been in a range and above resistance, this is where we often see distribution.

 More importantly, the 30 min chart, this is a VERY important timeframe and represents the trend of underlying activity without the day to day noise, leading negative at the same range area.

The 30 min chart trend-rmember I said there was one big AAPL accumulation area and I didn't expect to see another, I just expected those shares to be distributed in to higher prices before AAPL tumbles for real, there it is to the left in May. The negative divergence has grown worse from June to July, in August at the range and above resistance, it is leading negative and at it's worst on the entire chart, this is what really matters to me.

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