Wednesday, August 8, 2012

MCP Adds Another 6.5% Today

We saw something interesting in MCP Monday, many of us took the trade long, I decided to use the equity model portfolio being I wasn't sure what we were dealing with as it developed so fast, yesterday I gave those of you who wanted to stick it out longer, a Trend Channel stop that would guarantee a profit, if you stuck with that stop, you are happy today. I myself, even though admitting there is something much bigger going on, saw some short term stuff I didn't like and took a 2 day 7% profit (no options or leverage).

Here's MCP today...
 Here's the longer term Trend Channel stop from yesterday, now at the $12.35 area.

 This leading 5 min divergence added quite a bit today so something is still going on in MCP, although for me personally being out, I want to wait for a pullback and see what it looks like there.

 The 15 min chart is in a huge leading positive divergence, there was fast and strong accumulation here, something is going on.

 The longer term 60 min chart hasn't seen those strong divergences from the shorter charts migrate to this timeframe, so it seems like at this point, it's still a counter trend/dead cat bounce sort of trade, but I think there's more to what is actually going on than just a dead cat bounce.

 The 1 min chart is showing some deterioration right now with an intraday leading negative divergence, this is likely profit taking as this is at least a 12% move since Monday. Yesterday's negative divergence just created a consolidation (yellow).

This X-Over Screen to avoid false crossovers is what I'll be watching for a pullback to the blue 22 bar (30 min.) average, it may be deeper being we already hit the average once, but I'll be looking for positive divergences in to a pullback and if there are and the longer term charts start seeing positives as well, I'll likely enter MCP again.

If you are still in it, congratulations!

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