FB Update

We've made the most money doing the exact opposite of what the crowd does, that's why it's called Wolf on Wall Street and not "Sheep on Wall Street". When FB was THE MOST HATED stock, we were making lots of $$$ long, some members had well over 200% gains on calls. You may recall I closed a call position a little early, but still at a good gain and have been PATIENTLY waiting for the trade to come back to us since then, well FB is becoming the most hated stock again and some interesting things have happened.

I almost NEVER get involved with IPO/New issues because of the lock-up period, however there does seem to be something going on. The first day of trade I posted extensive analysis and my general conclusion was GS and MS both lost money trying to defend several price levels, the last of which being $38, that was the working theory when we first noticed something bullish in FB on the last long trade, it may still be a motivation and I wouldn't want to trade against GS anymore than the F_E_D. There may also be issues we don't know about with price and the lock up, this is why we try to follow underlying trade. We don't know what they know, but hopefully we have a good fix on what they are doing.

 In white, this is the area where we noticed something was going on and started buying calls and longs in FB, the yellow area "may" be a short to sub-intermediate term base forming, we'll get to that.

 Here's a closer look, you may recall that I have talked about capitulation days on big volume and a big gap down, I also said that typically the stock tends to drift down a bit in to a base as it moves from the end of stage 4 decline with capitulation and the start of stage 1 accumulation/base. I wouldn't presume to call this capitulation of any particular trend such as primary because there simply isn't enough trading history, but there is a chance we have a base brewing here, thus some of the long/call positions opened recently.

 This 60 min chart shows where we saw some interesting things in FB again and many members made quick $$$ on calls. When we first saw this I mentioned that I don't think this is ready to make a big move as it would be a "V" shaped reversal and those aren't common, I did mention the possibility that it would come back down and form a larger base, that may be what we are seeing.

 The 60 min chart (sorry about the scale) had an amazing leading positive divergence on our first long, you may recall it, now in context it's not even noticeable here, however price is lower and 3C IS NOT, a relative positive divergence on a very important timeframe.

 The 30 min chart and the leading positive from our first long position, also two areas of distribution, I never really got a decent FB position off anywhere in the area because the signals simply weren't strong enough or there. We also have another relative positive divergence between our first long and price now on the 30 min.

 The 15 min chart showing a negative divergence on an afternoon ramp job, but look at the positive divergences since the fall, this is an important timeframe as well. The positive divergence on the 6th seems strange, at first I though maybe it's just noise?

 However here on a 5 min chart we can see 3 positives including the 6th.

 Look at the 2 min trend, again the 6th is showing as positive, that would imply a move quite a bit higher, evn though it all has to be averaged, today is also leading positive on yesterday's decline.

2 min intraday shows positives in the a.m., FB heading higher from there and a leading positive now, this is pretty much how a base often forms, in a range; when it gets too high it is knocked back down and accumulated again, over and over.

 The 1 min trend, again the 6th is positive and today is leading positive as has been the last week or so.

1 min intraday shows a VERY small negative divergence yesterday, confirmation on the way down and a relative positive today and a current leading positive.

I might take a look at FB long stock so I don't have to worry about time decay on options unless I see something that tells me the timing is VERY close. In any case, I think there's more than meets the eye just looking at price in FB.