Wednesday, August 15, 2012

IOC Follow Up

I'm leaving the equity model portfolio IOC short in place, as you know, I have little tolerance for corrections with options positions, I decided to leave 20% in place.

I expected some near term volatility in IOC and this looks like the area in which we will get it, in the equity position I don't mind sitting it out and waiting, but options are different, especially with that gain that fast.

 A nearly 74% gain, the contract still in place is already well paid for and it is September.

 Daily these were the two areas of support/resistance I am focussed on near term, I figured the $79 area would offer some temporary support so I'll look for a bounce and a negative divergence to add a new put position. The higher resistance zone was the pivot I was hoping to see several decent closes to solidify that as a likely head fake move, we have them.

 Had I seen this one earlier, I probably would have exited as stops were hit on the break below support, those stops give Wall Street the supply they need to accumulate short term for a quick counter trend move to do the same thing I'm looking to do, get short at better levels.

The 2 min divergence shows those shares being accumulated today.

 As does the 3 min and 5 min.

 The more important longer term view of the 15 min chart shows a leading negative divergence at a new leading low, so longer term I'm still happy with the short position and will look for short term opportunities on the short side.

Ultimately, the 4 hour chart is the one that has the most damage, this is a horrible leading negative divergence and looks like the entire run up from the lows was used to sell in to/ short in to.

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