Risk Asset Update

I'm sure most of you noticed this by now, but just in case...

I'm sure most traders have picked up on this ascending triangle, it's a bullish consolidation/continuation pattern, volume confirms it, but it's sort of in the wrong place, however given the pivot created yesterday, I could see traders giving it the benefit of the doubt. We want to watch this carefully for breakouts/false breakouts as the SPY and even the DIA now and the QQQ especially are deteriorating rapidly in 3C. Not only that, but our Risk Asset Layout, the assets that "should" either be more bullish than the SPX or at least in line, is also giving us that same signal from last Friday that we have only had 3 times this year, each leading to a reversal, but all had a pivot which is the one thing our averages didn't have until yesterday.

The risk asset update... Pay attention to Credit.

 High Yield Credit is selling off here making a new low as the market is lateral in the triangle.

 The same with High Yield Corp. Credit.

 As well as Junk, as they say, "Credit leads, equities follow". This is not a great sign for the market now that we have pivots in place.

 Despite USO and GLD, commodities are doing nothing, they didn't follow the SPX early today and are flat.

 The longer trend in commodities shows where commodities started to peel away from the SPX after having been in sync, but at least they were moving in the same direction, that hasn't been true since last Friday.

 FCT is just an income fund a member told me about that has leading properties, I back tested it and found it to be true, here's FCT peeling away or dislocating form the SPX.

 My favorite leading indicator among the currencies is the $AUD, for a long time it has been in sync with the SPX until recently.

 The Euro gave some initial support to the market , but that has faded as the Euro dropped for seemingly no reason last night to 3 day lows on no news.

 As for the 3 Pillars, Financials, Energy and Tech, here's their momentum today vs the SPX, Energy was hanging in there, but recently started peeling away on a momentum basis.

 Financials have been nearly perfectly in line so I'll be taking a closer look at them.

Tech was stronger this morning, but like energy is also peeling away.

What ever the break out from the triangle, I don't think it ends well, at least from what I'm seeing in risk assets and the continued deterioration in the averages after having mushy to no signals early today.