Overnight and In to the open

We started the overnight session with China missing on CPI, PPI, Retail Sales and Industrial production, however ES was seen higher, why? The 4 misses in China gave rise to speculation that there would be Chinese stimulus and/or a cut to their Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) sending ES higher in the overnight session.

ES finally gave up those gains as the Euro hit some stops to the downside, effecting most FX cross pairs as well as the equity markets.

The ECB's monthly report was also released, this contained the same data already out, that the ECB "may" buy bonds on the shorter end of the curve "if" strict conditionality is attached, I suppose the same conditionality that Spain outright rejected this week and it's the 10-year that is the real problem, not 2, 3 or 5 years (although they are horrible too).

Greek unemployment hit a new high from 22.6% to 23.1%, youth unemployment at 65% as well!

The UK's trade deficit widened more than expected.

With all of that, the Euro made the downside trip to stopland.

So China initially disappointed, then sent the market higher, then the EU disappointed sending the Euro/market lower.

In the US, Initial Jobless Claims came in a little better than expected...
Released On 8/9/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk8/4, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	365 K	367 K	360 K to 385 K	361 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	365.5 K			368.25 K
New Claims - Change	8 K			-6 K

This makes 5 of the last 6 weeks that IC has come in better than expected.

The US Trade Deficit also came in 11% lower than expected and with that, the chances of a September QE announcement tumbled, we'll see how Gold takes it as it has been the QE sentiment indicator for quite some time now.

Here's ES overnight and in to the open where it looks like we will see some upside volatility early on.

 ES from yesterday's close to the European open at the green arrow


ES heading in to the open with an intraday positive divergence.

More opening indications coming...