Thursday, August 9, 2012

TLT may be a "Tell"

TLT is a long Treasury (20+ year) ETF, it is also a flight to safety trade that typically moves the opposite of the market, it's seeing some interesting action here that may be a tell about what's about to happen with the broader market. It seems something very sudden just changed, something that was in the works, but perhaps is happening faster than planned.

 TLT 1 min large relative positive divergence-if TLT goes up, typically the market goes down as it is a flight to safety trade.

 The 2 min, but again, the interesting feature is how fast it went leading positive in the last hour or so and is moving up as well.

 3 min large relative positive which is to be expected given the market negative divergences, but the interesting thing is the leading positive today.

 15 min large relative positive

 30 min

 60 min

This is the opposite ETF, TBT, it moves with the market and against TLT, look at that 2 min leading negative divergence-that's confirmation.

No comments: