Thursday, August 23, 2012

Risk Asset Layout looks good

I just took a quick look at the Risk Asset Layout and it looks good, it has the feel of the same short term  "bait" and big picture "trap door".

For example...

Currencies

 The Euro has some strength or you could say the dollar has some weakness, short term this is a benefit to the market, however the more important currency that has proven to be a leading indicator, the $AUD, looks like this...

 In line with market weakness, but longer term and this is where it shines because it is a carry trade currency...

 Dislocated or divergent from the SPX, which it hasn't been until what you see on this chart, it has looked like this on the last 3 major market reversals as well.

 Yields are like a magnet for equities, so intraday this isn't surprising, if the market can lift at all here it would be great, because look at the bigger picture.

Yields are divergent too and leading divergent, these have also been this way over the last 3 major reversals.

So things are fitting together a bit better today than yesterday.

"IF" the market can swing it, these would be my two targets for very near term, like tomorrow.

Each accomplishes something for the longs that keeps them hopeful and locked in, a higher high above the first level or a higher high above the second, either one will work. We just need to watch what the underlying trade does in to any move.

No comments: