Monday, September 17, 2012

BIDU Update

BIDU is worth keeping an eye on, it is still a core short equity position and since closing the last Put options position I've just been looking for the next opportunity in BIDU. There's weakness right now, although there hasn't been quite enough strength to make the risk/reward profile enticing. As I said, it's worth keeping an eye on.

 BIDU did make a higher high which interrupts the down trend, I had been hoping to see it stage a stronger bounce to look at it for a new position which I have been waiting on. The gap area in yellow would be decent, but ultimately a stronger higher high above the larger red resistance zone would be more enticing on a risk/reward basis, there may be enough energy in BIDU to make it there; this morning's nearly 1.5% decline is getting close to overdone.

On an hourly chart this is called a "Tower Top", the gap up this a.m. just hit a new bounce high before reversing.

 The 1 min chart with accumulation on the 12th and some distribution late last week.

 2 min chart is similar.

 As is the 3 min chart, but here we start to see a larger positive divergence area suggesting to me that BIDU is capable of moving higher.

 The 5 min BIDU chart.

 A close up of the 5 min chart shows similar action as to what we saw Friday in the averages, for example...

The IWM 5 min chart looks very similar on Friday as did most of the averages. I'm trying to look at data post-F_O_M_C before deciding on whether the larger picture and longer chart data is still valid.

I personally would wait on BIDU and see if it does give an opportunity of lower risk, higher reward and then double check that the probabilities are still lined up toward continued downside momentum.

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