Monday, September 17, 2012

Energy, Financials and Tech

Looking a the 3 groups, there's a short term positive intraday divergence, it seems clear that damage was done on Friday primarily to the 5 min charts but that is partly because I'm not looking too far out as I'm trying to get information that is post F_O_M_C, if I look further out, then there's deterioration on longer charts as well like 10-15 min in the industry groups except for 1, you might have guessed, Energy. It seems obvious that Energy is discounting the rapidly deteriorating situation in not only the Muslim world (vis-a-vis sentiment toward the west), but the Chinese/Japanese situation is getting out of hand and probably most importantly is the Armada of 25 nations gathering at the Straits of Hormuz.

 Energy above looks much different than Financials and Tech, the 1 min chart with a fairly long positive divergence in place.

 The 2 min chart also showing some initial deterioration early Friday which sent the sector drifting lower, but that price weakness seems to have been accumulated.

 The 5 min chart shows the same situation as described above, just with a different divergence.
I'd expect Energy to make a move higher shortly.

 Financials are showing a 1 min relative positive divergence, I can't say whether it grows more or not and if it is a simple consolidation divergence sending the group lateral or an intraday move higher, I suspect an intraday move higher probably off some weak dollar catalyst that kick starts energy as well.

 At 2 min on the Financials, there's a small relative positive divergence that migrated from the 1 min chart, but it is within a much larger and stronger leading negative divergence; that doesn't mean financials can't move higher from here intraday, they can, it just means there's likely a cap on the move unless this negative divergence were to improve.

 The 5 min chart, like I mentioned in the BIDU post and also IWM and the other averages, they all pretty much saw similar action on the 5 min chart of a leading negative divergence.

 Tech strangely isn't showing a short term 1 min positive divergence, in fact quite the opposite, it's strange to see these 3 sectors looking so different as they usually all move together as the risk on trifecta.

 Tech 2 min with a leading negative divergence as well from Friday and continuing today.

And there's nothing unique about the 5 min chart here, it looks like many, many charts from Friday.

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