GLD & Gold Futures

Here's a look at GLD and YG (Gold mini Futures); I'm making an effort to try to look at data since the F_O_M_C in case there's a total change in character since yesterday. If it can be confirmed that there is not a change in character specifically with certain assets like equities,( if they pull back and there's no strong accumulation that would be a step toward confirming there's no change)  the longer chart data is still valid. If there were to be accumulation, especially large, that would confirm a shift. Gold is more complicated because regardless of whether equities priced in QE3 or not, Gold should benefit from dollar devaluation. Still I'm not going to make assumptions or react based on emotion, just gather the data.

I would expect in the near term if QE3 was not completely priced in to gold, smart money would want to pull back the asset to accumulate at lower prices, similar to the 4 day pullback after QE2 which allows smart money to accumulate in to cheaper prices and supply.

So this analysis is just the first leg of broader analysis especially with gold/GLD, but there does seem to be some stronger than usual negative momentum in short timeframes and some surprisingly longer ones.

 GLD 2 min is rather dull, close to confirmation of intraday moves today.

 At 3 min. there's a difference in tone.

 The same with the 5 min chart.

This is where it gets interesting, typically large moves on longer timeframes such as 15 min and up, are a sign that there's somewhat extraordinary underlying activity in an asset as these charts often take a longer time to move. Also I would note that if institutional money wanted to accumulate GLD RIGHT HERE and there were strong bids from retail, you might see a negative divergence (usually not in the 5 min range, but 1-3 min) to in essence keep prices stable so they can be accumulated at a stable price instead of chasing it 3% or more higher. The divergences in the longer timeframes though seem to make this scenario unlikely and even if that were the case, on some timeframe large scale accumulation would have to peak out or at least the divergences wouldn't be negative but in line with sharper positives at the lows of the day.

 I've been trying not to move in to longer timeframes that may not have caught up, but seeing the depth of this 10 min negative makes me follow the divergence migration.

 Now there are signs of it starting on a 15 min

 And even 30 min.

 The 1 min futures are more difficult as they are spotty.

 Here are the 5 min futures

There's an identifiable accumulation trend and a leading negative on the 15 min where trade is not spotty, I'm not sure I should even be going out this far, but I figure if the positive divergence showed up as quickly, then perhaps the negative is just as valid.