Thursday, September 27, 2012

If you are going to play the bounce...

Now's probably the last chance you'll get to do it while several of the averages are still close to potential stops with low risk.

 The QQQ is already following this morning's leading positive divergence higher.

 Meanwhile the DIA is just starting to shape up, I still think it will bounce with the rest of the market, but relative performance will be of great interest a will be divergences between the averages.

 DIA 10 min, while not extremely impressive, still has enough to bounce on an oversold correction.

 The SPY is still not doing much on the 1 min

 but like the DIA, there's enough built on the 10 min to see it bounce.

 The characteristics of the bounce look to me to be a volatile or sharp, but rather short lived move as the base or accumulation area is quite small, but as I said yesterday, Wall Street rarely makes a move without it accomplishing some goal and that is usually to turn emotions, cause confusion or doubts. This 15 min chart shows the limitations of the move, it's not the larger accumulation I was on the look out for as prices moved lower suggesting smart money was bringing prices down to accumulate a large post QE3 position.

 The IWM 10 min looks good, if I were to play an average for a bounce right now, it would probably be the Russell 2000 given the divergence and that it is still close to the base.

The 30 min chart again shows the limitations of the move.

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