Thursday, September 27, 2012

PCLN Trade Set up

PCLN is a current core short position from late April and even with a counter trend bounce of almost 2 months, it's still up 18% with no leverage. There's a little room to add to the position and this is what I'm looking for to add to PCLN, it's pretty simple and if we get the market bounce we look set for, it should be pretty soon.

 The daily chart shows the PCLN short entry at $761.79 on a head fake breakout from a bullish wedge, we already knew there was 3C distribution before the breakout even started so the head fake move was a high probability/low risk entry. PCLN fell over 17% on August 8th on heavy volume and has been trying to retrace that gap since. The channel is what is important here.

As you can see we have a little more upside before the gap is filled. We haven't seen too many channel buster since earlier this year, but PCLN just busted the channel to the downside, most traders would be looking to short that break, but more often than not, these channel breaks reverse and a reversal to the upside (with a market bounce) could put PCLN in to the gap and ABOVE the channel, that's the channel buster I want to look at shorting/adding to PCLN, somewhere in the $662-$672 area. By that time the negative divergences should also be present, this could be a matter of a few days so I'd set price alerts if you are interested in the trade. This would certainly be a set up in which the trade comes to you with a better entry and lower risk.

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