Thursday, September 27, 2012

Market Update

Just as I put up the futures update, the next thing I see is ES and NQ start to crack, the EUR/USD is also under some pressure.

 EUR/USD 5 min chart

 ES 1 min chart

NQ 1 min chart.

There's no problem with the price action of the futures, the problem is in the underlying 3C action which suggests that the strength in the market was sold in to. Although these are only 1 min charts, this isn't the 3C action you'd expect to see for a consolidation/pullback or pause.

As for the market averages... The QQQ has been the strongest...
 The 2 min chart saw some damage today.

 Even the 5 min chart saw some damage and instead of being in a strong leading positive divergence as it was, it's now simply in line with price.

 The 10 min chart is still in line and looking at this alone I'd say there shouldn't be any trouble with the market continuing its bounce, the caveat is the weakness in the faster timeframes and whether that migrates over to this chart, if so, then the bounce will be more difficult to sustain and likely shorter.

 SPY 1 min saw quite a bit of damage, unless this turns pretty positive by the close, I'd be a little concerned about the bounce continuing tomorrow.

 The 3 min chart is similar to the QQQ 5 min as it has gone from a leading positive divergence to a leading negative.

Again, the 10 min chart for now looks ok to carry on with the bounce, but either there needs to be some more positive tone from these shorter term charts or they are likely to creep in to these 10 min timeframes and cut the move up short.

I'll obviously keep an eye on closing trade for any improvement. If there were to be shorter term chart improvement, it would likely need price to either pullback a bit or flatten out.

No comments: