Thursday, October 11, 2012

AAPL Setting Up for Another Call Trade

Something interesting is happening in AAPL, you may recall it didn't confirm on the open this morning leaving it open to retail sellers and if you follow Technical Analysis, you'll know the price pattern in place is the ultimate Technical Short. I just think the retail short sellers are about to get burned, but on the way down, I'll be looking for a positive divergence to open another call position like the second one opened this week that made a quick 20% or so if memory serves me correctly.

Here's what we have thus far and the reason for weakness in the NASDAQ and by extension, the other averages.

 For a H&S top, this is the ultimate Technical Analysis textbook short set up, a break under the neckline and a bounce up toward the neckline that fails, that's the ultimate short set up in TA books, it hasn't worked for years, but it's still being followed. So the path of the red and white arrows is what TA retail is looking for, however, smart money usually chases them out and the green arrow is what happens before a real move lower that will hold sets in.

 This is the 1 min chart from this morning with no confirmation, smart money left it open with no support, retail can easily move it and they are if you look at Twitter. However...

The 60 min positive seems to show smart money is already in place for the volatility shakeout of the shorts, it's a matter of watching the short term charts to go positive and then I'll look at adding a call for the ride.

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