Silver

Long time member's know how I feel about silver/SLV or any derivative, I hate analyzing them because silver has been one of the most manipulated assets out there since 2008 when JP Morgan took over Bear Stearns and inherited their large short SLV/Silver position.

Since a long time member asked, I took a look and didn't like what I saw. As for SLV/Silver, the probabilities look solidly lined up against it, as for a trade, it's not in a great risk/reward area, maybe with a move in the right direction it would be worth it, but otherwise as it sits right now, it's not something I would pursue and I'll show you why.

 Here's the big silver manipulation of 2011 led by Max Kieser, "BREAK JPM'S SILVER SHORT". The line in the sand for JPM was supposed to be $32, above that they were underwater on their short, but who knows. We just know that SLV broke a certain level and took off for a 57% gain in two months, then the COMEX stepped in and hiked margins several days consecutively, some with a day inbetween, but even after the move in silver was killed, the COMEX still hiked margin requirements to make sure silver was dead. Why? I think JPM did the F_E_D and Hank a big favor when they took Bear Stearns, it seemed to me that these big institutions didn't want to see JPM hurt for helping them out, and thus SLV fell 30% in 2 weeks.
 
 There's a daily Bollinger Band Squeeze and it looks like SLV will soon make a highly directional move, which way though?

 This is my Demark inspired indicator, it has called tops and bottoms in SLV and right now it's calling a large top.

 Embedded Stochastics are fine with me, it's a sign of strength, but when they start to turn down, it's a change in character, also note RSI in a negative divergence.

 The X-Over Screen isn't quite there yet, but it is moving closer to a sell/short signal.

 My Trend Channel on a 2-day setting shows where the short starts at the left, where it ends at the red arrow in the middle, and where the long stop is now, around $32. The blue indicator shows where SLV has closed within the daily range which is interesting information.

Here's the 1 day TC for a tighter stop...

As for this move that has held the bulk of the uptrend, it's already stopped out. i find after the Trend Channel stops out, there's just volatility, there's usually not much hope for further gains. The Custom "Close Within Range" indicator also shows the daily closing action in SLV turning bearish.

 The 4 hour chart is negative

The hourly chart is negative.

 The 30 min is negative, that's enough confirmation for me to not trade this long.

I also wouldn't trade it short unless it gave a price concession and lowered the risk on the short, I'd need to see prices around $33.50 to $34 or greater before entering a short in SLV. That's my take.