TJX Short Follow Up

On October 2nd I opened a starting short position in the Equities Model Portfolio in TJX and showed you why in this post.

I'll be setting some price alerts to add to TJX on any price strength, so far the position is slightly in the green, but I specifically only opened about a 1/3 size normal position to be able to add to TJX in the future. We may get our chance soon, as far as the premise of the short, it's still very much intact.

For members who like the idea, but missed the original entry, I think you'll have a great chance to get in at the same if not slightly better prices with low risk and high probabilities as a longer term core short position.

 TJX when it was healthy gained approx. 3000%, on the QE sugar high as volume declined (which is a bad sign on an advance), although it looks like a lot because of the parabolic move of 2012, it's about 400% from the 2009 lows, all QE fed, but values are coming back in to the equation most surprisingly.


 My 3 day Trend Channel held the entire parabolic move of 2012, but was recently stopped out at the red arrow, while we often see volatility and sometimes higher prices after a Trend Channel stop out, it's a real gamble and 9/10 you are better off just exiting there, especially when the lateral chop and opportunity cost are considered, the Trend Channel says something big has changed, you are wise to pay attention to it.

 The 3 day 3C chart shows rough confirmation on the move up from 1990 - 2006, after that a negative divergence sets in, I think we've established the long term negative outlook for TJX.

 The 4 hour chart has gone from confirmation earlier in the year to a leading negative divergence, I think we have established near term downside probability.

 Even the 30 min chart is showing the TJX move to the downside is close, thus I want to fill out the rest of the core short position on any price strength.

 The 10 min chart shows a positive divergence that may give us exactly that chance.

 As does the 2 min chart, suggesting it's close at hand, I've set upside price alerts already.

I think we can get a move to the $45.50-$46 area and that's where I'm most interested.

As for downside, I don't think $25 is unreasonable at all.