Monday, October 8, 2012

GOOG

I think GOOG looks very similar to the market and AAPL so I don't expect much to be different in the way it moves or the set up there. I'm going to start with the bigger picture in GOOG or the reason I like GOOG short and work to the shorter term tactical entry/add to charts.

 GOOG's weekly chart, a few things stand out: 1) parabolic moves in the past, even within a range have tend to end badly 2) Volume for a breakout move out of a nearly 3 year range is non-existient, not a good sign 3) this last move is parabolic and really has no support at all built in during the move off the June lows- 2012, it's very exposed.

 Here's a closer view, recently the weekly candlesticks have deteriorated for the first time on this move, again there's no pullbacks that would give GOOG support on a move down, this is really a nice candidate for a parabolic decline.

 Here's the Linear regression channel, today's move wasn't good.

 The 30 min chart shows a couple of areas I'll be watching for a GOOG short or add to, the gap from today will probably be filled so that leaves a breakout move as the most probable outcome.

 The daily GOOG 3C chart is pretty ugly on this parabolic move out of the nearly 3 year range, we don't often see divergences like this on a daily chart, these should be taken seriously.

 The 60 min chart went from confirmation to a negative and then leading negative divergence, that's quite a change in character for a new high.

 Here's the same with sharper detail on a 30 min chart, the change in character is quite clear, retail doesn't move a chart like this in a stock this big.

 GOOG's 2 min chart saw similar short term positive divergences today which isn't surprising so it should be a near term candidate as well.

GOOG didn't see very strong intraday positives today, 3 mins is about as far as it made it, so I'd suspect GOOG may be in an even weaker position, definitely one to keep on the radar.

No comments: