Monday, October 8, 2012

Market Update

On nearly any timeframe, if I show you the near term intraday and the longer trend version of that timeframe, the theme of the market can be seen almost anywhere and among all of the averages as well as futures, very short term working on some light accumulation for a bounce move as described last night, anything much longer than that though and the negative character is quite clear, summed up as well in a short term bounce in AAPL that leads to a much uglier top being completed.

I think the minutes were clearly influential, before them the market was listless, signals were hard to come by, after the minutes, everything became much clearer, it's very much like I said last week, before their release, the market looked to be in a holding pattern waiting for them, after, it didn't like what it saw.

Here the market update....
 The EUR/USD opening this week, the Euro was weak through the overnight session and only gained a little upside near the US open as the Treasury market in the US is closed today while stocks are open.

 A closer look at the pair at the 9:30 US open.

 ES serves as a perfect example for nearly everything to follow, the 1 min chart is leading positive as price chops laterally here, which is often needed to build a position/divergence, but as mentioned, I don't think it will be much more than a bounce/small move up.

 ES 5 min shows that same positive divergence being worked on now, but compared to the negative after the release of the minutes, the bias is clearly negative despite any short term [price strength that may build out of this consolidation area.

 DIA 1 min positive on the open, somewhat in line intraday, this looks like consolidation after Friday's slide in preparation for the small bounce mentioned last night.

 The negative Friday and positive building on DIA 2 min

 The 5 min chart hasn't seen any positive divergence migrate over yet as it needs some time and consolidation, but it is in line here intraday.

 Xoom the same 5 min DIA chart out and in the yellow area before the minutes (holding pattern) there aren't many interesting signals, after the minutes, the signal on the chart is clear, leading negative.

 IWM 2 min with Friday's negative and a relative positive in this area today.

 3 min chart shows the same.

 As does the 5 min chart.

 QQQ 1 min negative at Friday's highs, now a relative positive in this choppy consolidation area,


 3 min chart with the same theme, Friday negative divergence and a positive in today's lateral consolidation.

 Same theme on the QQQ 5 min, but zoom it out....

 After few decent signals, this one is pretty clear, leading negative.

 SPY 1 min, same theme from Friday and today


 2 min chart with the same theme-that's a lot of confirmation between averages and timeframes.

 3 min SPY negative Friday, in line today

The 5 min chart, few good signals before the minutes, a VERY clear leading negative on the minutes, the green and red arrows to the right are what I'm expecting, we consolidate and build a divergence strong enough to bounce us a bit, but the larger theme is very negative so I'd be looking to short in to any price strength, the same as AAPL.

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