Monday, October 8, 2012

IBM

Not much has changed in IBM since last Friday's update which showed the macro trend using MoneyStream on a daily chart and what looks to be a fairly large double top.

As mentioned last week, the IBM short position already in place is is doing fine, it was down a fraction of a percent Friday, today up a fraction. I'm looking for a head fake breakout move to add to IBM to bring it up to full position size. I suspect IBM/AAPL/the market all probably move together at the same time, so that will likely be a busy day.

GOOG is coming up next.

Here's IBM today...
 This is the daily depiction of the double top, I'm just looking for a head fake breakout to add to IBM here.

 The 15 min chart with the bull flag at "A" and the recent bullish ascending triangle at "B", this is the kind of pattern that gets manipulated/head faked as traders see the bullish pattern at a new breakout area and rush in to the trade with plenty of demand for smart money to sell/sell short in to.

 A closer look on a 5 min chart at the ascending triangle, this is what I figured it was, but the support recently helps to confirm that is what it is and helps traders feel more confident about IBM, again, this is how Technical Analysis is manipulated with these price patterns traders have been conditioned to react to over nearly 100 years.

 The 2 min trend in 3C at the bull flag and the ascending triangle, both are breakouts and price patterns bulls will buy in anticipation so to see distribution in to them is not surprising.

 The 5 min leading negative at the same two bullish price patterns.

Here's the really important chart though, the 60 min which was confirming the uptrend in IBM until we entered the area of the bullish price patterns, this leading negative divergence on such a long time frame and for o long does not look good for IBM moving forward, a breakout from the most recent triangle should be the trigger.

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