Monday, October 8, 2012

UCO (leveraged long oil) Update

UCO opened earlier today is slightly in the green, but it continues to improve and I suspect it will be breaking higher very soon. I suspect the EUR and specifically $USD will be helping out soon, don't forget to see the last chart of the $USD below.

 USO 2 min hitting a  new leading positive intraday high.

 5 min USO also looking good

 The 10 min looked good earlier, now it looks great, it added a lot to the leading positive divergence today alone.

 Ultimately the 60 min chart of USO's negative divergence and break down and positive divergence recovery. While I do think USO moves higher, I think we need to keep these two divergences in perspective, or in other words while I expect a strong move, I don't expect a move that is the start of a new uptrend or anything like that.

 The Euro-remember these ETf's giving signals today, usually see them play out the next day, no matter what happens overnight, we've talked about this before and used these signals last week to predict next day market movement with perfect success.

 Euro 5 min leading positive today

 The 1 min $USD seeing a negative divergence, this is helpful for oil in the near term as are the Euro charts above.

 3 min $USD leading negative

However as I said above about the scale of the move in oil, I think we need to be realistic about it, as of now it looks like a decent move, but not the start of a new primary uptrend and the $USD's 30 min positive divergence should place a cap on how high USO/UCO eventually go.

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