Risk Asset Update

This is a nearly perfect Risk Asset Update in many ways when you look at the 15 min charts today and how much they have gained so fast.

The StockTwits crowd (I have this from numerous sources) are retail traders, they are viewing today's price strength as a chance to short and the only way I can see those 15 min charts flying positive like they are is if there's enough supply for smart money to accumulate, when you sell short, you are selling shares in the market, that is supply, that is what smart money needs to accumulate and probably answers the question of why and how are 15 min charts hitting new highs so quickly in an environment that is neither down or flat?

The Risk Assets are leading indicators and they support the bullish stance of the charts from late last week, through last week as it was building and especially the crazy move today.

The charts....

 My favorite currency as far as leading indicators go is the Australian dollar as it shows what hedge funds are doing, whether they are moving in to or out of the carry trade, here $AUD vs the SPX (green), just like last night when the $AUD led the Euro and ES after they fell hard after the open, is leading again.

 The Euro recently is even at a positive arbitrage correlation for market upside.

 Here's the biggie, High Yield Corp. Credit, not only because this is VERY liquid and a first choice for large traders to express a bullish view quickly, but because Credit markets are smarter than Equity market, "Credit leads, stocks follow". That's a huge positive divergence in credit vs the SPX.

 Even intraday as the SPX pulls back as expected, Credit is not, it's holding its ground.

 Even High Yielding Junk Credit is leading the SPX!

Intraday also.

$AUD gave us a peak last night and the market responded, it's now giving us a much bigger signal that fits with the 15 min charts, the Euro isn't holding anything back and HY Credit is leading strongly for this move.