AAPL Example

AAPL may be one of the best examples of what I was talking about in the last post n which the 1 min chart "should" be the ugliest and then the longer charts like 2, 3 and 5 min in that order.

As we saw in the last update, the 1 min intraday charts which are normally pretty reliable for intraday moves, are almost totally unremarkable, meaning very little divergence, very little signal, not even worth a post by themselves.

I tried to explain what I think "could" be happening because of sentiment and Black Friday-the last thing anyone in government wants to hear is the market took a dive on the last day of trade before Black Friday shopping, in fact quite the opposite as was speculated here Sunday night.

AAPL is responsible for about 20% of the NASDAQ 100's weighting or roughly the same as the bottom 50 weighted stocks all combined, so AAPL alone can move the NASDAQ 100 and the averages tend to move together.

So I took another look at AAPL and it is an even better example of this freaky aberration on the charts today, which if they hold up, meaning no pullback, I'd have no problem calling out the F_E_D PPT as being busy-bodies in the market today.

 This is the longer term probability on a 30 min chart, has nothing to do with an intraday pullback and just tells us that the probabilities for the next several weeks is that AAPL is higher and probably significantly.

 On a 15 min timeframe we even have a slight negative divergence suggesting a pullback before we see the next serious leg up, this would have come from the faster charts and they would have stronger negative divergences.

 However the 1 min chart is actually in a leading positive position!

It's not that strong that it looks like real accumulation, it looks like intraday manipulation because the next timeframe, the 2 min is simply in line.

The AAPL 5 min negative looks exactly as it should considering the smaller divergence on the 15 min chart as the divergences flow from shortest timeframe to longest for a new move like a pullback, so we know the 5 and 15 min charts and a pullback are very high probability, but the 1 and 2 min charts should look the worst, they don't and that's where we could be seeing small support from the PPT to keep the market up-after all look what they did with the futures overnight.

Any way, I thought I'd point this out as it's something I haven't seen before, but makes sense with Black Friday Shopping, the day that most retailers go in to the black, the 1 day that makes their year.

As far as we are concerned from a trading standpoint, I see no trade on the long side with a 5 and 15 min chart like this, I'd wait for the pullback to look at a long, I wouldn't buy on what is most likely very small time manipulation in which they are just picking up retail's offers.