I have to say the market is holding up well, the TICK is holding up well (which means market breadth is holding up well). On some short timeframes we are seeing some significant improvement which almost makes me wonder if we don't see more of a consolidation through time rather than price or less of a consolidation through price (pullback) and more toward time (trending laterally). There are some dichotomies though that make the short term a bit more challenging than usual, the long term charts and where I think the market will be a week or 2 weeks from now are much less ambiguous.
In any case I'll show you the charts that caused me to put out that last market update calling for a pullback soon.
DIA 1 min intraday, this is such a small negative divergence (relative) that on its own, I wouldn't even mention it.
Even the 3 min's chart is really not anything I'd trade on or probably even mention, but...
This 5 min chart is a bit more difficult to ignore and it is moving lower as price is moving higher.
ES futures 1 min are also negative, they are not seeing 3C move with price, but rather against it.
The IWM had a strong positive signal earlier today and now the 1 min chart is starting to lead negative, but I will make note that 3C was in line with the IWM's trend intraday until just recently.
The problem in the IWM, the 2 min chart is not confirming the price action and rather contradicting it.
QQQ 1 min was in line until this most recent bump starting around noon. This of course suggests some profits are being taken in to the higher prices or there is some short selling, which can be market makers-both selling (profit taking) and short selling come across the tape as sales.
QQQ 3 min also not confirming, but once again I must point out that these are NOT sharp negative divergences, they're rather mellow. I believe it's kind of like Technical Analysis use to be before Wall Street started using it against technical traders, in a bull market a bullish price pattern would work maybe 75% of the time, but in a bear market that same price pattern may work 50% of the time or a toss up, I suspect 3C is similar in that when we have longer term positives underlying trade the short term charts aren't as negative as when we have bearish underlying long term trade.
Again the SPY 1 min is barely remarkable and I wouldn't bring it up on its own, I'd wait for a stronger signal...
However at 2 min. we saw the positive divergence on yesterday's afternoon lows and now we are moving toward a leading negative divergence today, this is why I bring it up.
Te last thing I'm also considering is the fact that the worst divergences are on the 2, 3 and 5 min charts while the 1 min charts are almost unremarkable. Early this week I said that I though t there was a good chance they'd try to move the market up, it would have to be enough to make the news and AAPL made such a move Monday as did most of the market, the reason I said this is because people have short memories and if the last thing they hear is the market was strong today, it may influence their sentiment in to Black Friday shopping.
When I see the 2, 3, and 5 min charts negative I feel confident we are going to get a pullback-nothing serious, a constructive pullback, but the 1 min chart should be leading these others, it should look the worst, the fact it doesn't makes me wonder if the market is getting a little help to put in a good showing today before BF.
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