Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Pre-Market

Last night's hoopla in Europe sending the Euro and Futures sharply down after the Euro-Group failed to reach an agreement with the IMF regarding Greece's funding has been stemmed overnight, supposedly on the back of some softening of the German stance on the Greek situation. It is remarkable how resilient this market has been to some rather bad news the last several days since we had a key reversal day. Here's what ES looked like overnight...

ES 1 min overnight to present

As you can see we have another negative divergence, this may be the early weakness that I suspected yesterday,  we would see today to be followed by strength, if not later today (which I would normally think, but because traders will be leaving their desks early for the Hampton's it may have to wait) then shortly. The point really is that we get some movement with positive readings in to it that we can set some new leveraged long positions, I'd like to have another triple digit 1-day gainer like AAPL this week.

NASDAQ futures have a similar signal.
NQ 1 min

Of course we still have a little time for the indications to shift before the open, but we all have seen how the Futures tend to swing dramatically, often in the opposite direction of pre-market, as soon as the New York Bell rings-at least in early trade.

The EUR/USD has also recovered as you'd expect from lows of about 1.2735 to 1.2810.

Because of the Holiday tomorrow in the US and the shortened session on Friday, there's an early data dump today. Thus far Initial Claims are in with a slight beat.

Released On 11/21/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk11/17, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level439 K415 K380 K to 500 K410 K
4-week Moving Average - Level383.75 K396.25 K
New Claims - Change78 K-41 K
About 5k below consensus, still up there though.

We also have Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators, EIA Petroleum Status and EIA Natural Gas report as well as a slew of bill and note announcements and a 10-year TIPS auction.

It should be an interesting day to see how the algos play the market later in the day when the humans leave early.

If anything substantial changes in pre-market I'll let you know, the next economic report, Consumer Sentiment, is due out at 9:55.




Released On 11/21/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk11/17, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level439 K415 K380 K to 500 K410 K
4-week Moving Average - Level383.75 K396.25 K
New Claims - Change78 K-41 K

No comments: