Thursday, November 29, 2012

Crude



 This is UO (Long WTI Oil) with some bearish looking patterns, I'm not looking at a position trade short in oil because I don't see the evidence that oil is going to take a sustained dive, just a shorter term move, thus the leveraged ETF is a good tool for the job.

 The 3 min SCO (short oil) chart with a large relative positive divergence.

 SCO with  a 10 min positive divergence, this is along the timeframe that a 2x leveraged ETF is useful in crude.

 The /CL Crude Futures with a 1 min negative divergence after having been in line for a while.

 The /CL 5 min chart with a clear leading negative divergence, again a timeframe that makes a leveraged product an ideal tool as a straight USO short doesn't provide enough profit potential, the trade is not so long that a leveraged ETF should suffer from the choppiness that kills ETFs, but I think the trade is longer and perhaps more normal than just a quick upside pop, so I don't like options in this case as they aren't my ideal tool (strictly speaking in a long call/put manner-not looking at more advanced strategies) for a trade that could last several days and see some normal corrections.

 Here's the 60 min /CL chart, with the positive longer term divergence in place, this is why I wouldn't consider a short in oil a position trade, the longer term probabilities lean toward oil eventually trending higher making this more of a speculative trade idea.

 USO should have the opposite signal compared to SCO and similar compared to /CL, the 10 min chart is negative on today's gap up.


 Shorter timeframes like the 1 min are negative, no confirmation of the move.

 Same with the 2 min

 And the 3 min-Confirmation would see the orange 3C line up around price or new highs on the chart.

Compared to the USO 10 min negative, the SCO 10 min is positive.

That's why I like the specific trade mentioned, short oil.

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