Thursday, November 29, 2012

FX Update

I'm watching for any hint that something is about to change, so there's a lot of jumping between symbols.

The way the equity portfolio is set up (although this is more for tracking than anything, but I still try to keep good habits) is the Core Shorts which are all at a gain except GOOG at a very small loss, but you probably saw the plan for GOOG posted yesterday and then there are a lot of leveraged longs to take advantage of the cycle set up from late October through days before the 16th of this month, that is the larger, higher probability move, but within and before that we have good signals for a sharp downward correction before the move that started on the 16th really continues, there are no positions to hedge the ultra-longs in the equity MP, the only hedges are Puts in AAPL, Calls in FAZ and I forgot, a short in AMZN- oh and SCO today.

It's not nearly enough to hedge the long exposure. I'll wait to see if there's something that really moves me to hedge, but SQQQ had some interesting signals today.

Here's a look at several currencies and the 3C charts-30 min all,

 This is the $AUD/USD with a negative divergence, that is market negative and that's a 30 min chart, the second relative high is much more negative than the first.

 This is the Euro only futures, same issue on a 30 min chart, much more negative at the second relative high.

And the Euro/USD, again suggesting Euro down, USD up, that's market negative and on hefty timeframes.

I'm starting to wonder if I shouldn't have more short term exposure, I want to see something that really makes me move though.

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