Election Analysis

After looking at the daily charts of different stocks that should do well under Obama or Romney, I came up with a draw, this unfortunately is not full analysis, I stuck with the daily charts as they are most likely to represent , "The next 4 years".

I can't put together full analysis of election details for all the possible companies and I can't even say how a favored company might move after their candidate is elected. For instance, if their candidate is elected, then you'd think initially the company would take off, but it's unlikely Wall St. would have established a large position in front of an election with a very sensitive stock that could get decimated if their candidate doesn't win, so in fact we could see a move to the downside in these companies allowing Wall St. to accumulate.

Furthermore, I'm not sure long term charts could possibly accurately represent what the changing dynamics of the election are. Also intraday how can we know if a stock is reacting to election results that Wall St. may have access to or something else? It's hard to say with any certainty.

I will say this, in general Wall St. has been giving Romney more money than Obama, last election it was about the same, this one it's roughly 2:1 for banks with certain banks like GS, JPM, WFC and others giving more like 3:1 or 4:1.

On Romney's side I looked at:

Financials: GS, BAC, JPM (as they have been big contributors), WFC, CYN and CMA-all suppose to benefit from a Romney Win.

I looked at Defense that should do well with Romney:

LMT, NOC and RTN.

In Energy I looked at companies I felt were more specific to a Romney win:

GPOR, PXD, CLR, NE, ESV and OLL

As well as those who benefit from "the pipeline": SHAW and CBI.

I figured FSLR would go toward Obama, I also looked at hospitals:

HCA (The nation's largest operator of hospitals), THC and CVH

In Insurers: AET, HUM, UNH and WLP

To be honest, after looking at all of these, there are some that look great, some that don't look so great. I couldn't possibly handicap the election based on these companies as a trend just did not emerge EXCEPT IN ONE PLACE- COAL!

Considering Obama signed a law that limits new construction of any power stations to either nuclear or natural gas, coal is a big loser under Obama and a big winner under Romney.

This is the one place there was a trend and VERY POSITIVE. I looked at:  ACI, ANR and BTU and these 3 look fantastic!

I suppose if I had to bet based on what I just saw, I'd say Romney and that's based on the fact that the most solid trend is clearly in the Romney camp.

Lets see what happens and we'll know where we can position soon.