AMD Update

AMD is a long position, pretty much a longer term long position, not as long term as UNG, but not a trading position either. There was something I liked about AMD, many of us entered, saw a 20-23% or so draw down and kept holding AMD and are now back to break-even in an interesting stock (remember the trend I noticed a while back with high flyer favorites performing poorly and the beaten up bunch showing more promise).

Here an AMD update as we just start to make our way back in to the green on the position again, we didn't give up on AMD for a reason, the same thing happened with RIMM (we bought it on positive divergences before earnings, it missed on earnings and fell 9% and then made us 30-35% as we stayed long RIMM not because we didn't want to take the loss, but because the signals were strong there and they weren't about earnings, they were about a major shakeup in management).

AMD did leave a big gap open on today's nearly +11% move so that's a probable target to be filled, also an opportunity to keep on the radar.

 AMD looked like at least an intermediate trend capitulation move (yellow) and base (white) with what appears to be a break-away move today (that's only if the gap doesn't get filled). Volume thus far is on track to be quite high as it has already surpassed the normal average daily trading volume.

 The 60 min chart is handsome in AMD< it has and continued to suggest a base was being built in AMD with first a relative positive and then a stronger leading positive divergence. If this wasn't here, then I probably would have considered a stop out of AMD a while back.

 Take a look at the 5 min chart's trend, also we see some potential head fake areas as we usually see a head fake move just prior to a reversal.

 The reason it would be a a head fake is it took out obvious support, there were positive divergences on that move and look what happened shortly after the move.  This is the 3 min chart leading positive at the new lows.

 Here's a closer view of the 3 min chart with a couple of positive divergences including a leading positive in the VERY flat trade on Friday.

 The 1 min chart and 2 min suggest we are seeing profit taking in to this move, that makes sense and the possibility of a gap fill also makes sense, I'd like to see if the negative divergence can migrate over to the 3 min or even 5 min chart. This would just increase the chances of the gap being filled.

Again this is one where you might consider a trailing stop and/or taking partial profits and looking to add on a pullback, I personally wouldn't want to make that decision until I see what happens with migration on the 3 and 5 min charts.

 The daily X-Over Screen is VERY close to a confirmed long signal, in this case the yellow 10-day moving average would be where we expect to see the first pullback.


 For a trailing stop you can set up a 22 bar 60 min moving average and also watch the 60 min RSI as a potential trailing stop or you could take some partial profits right here.

The 60 min 50 bar average has held the overall trend well, this is not so much a trailing stop, but more of an overall trade marker you may want to keep an eye on, AMD should hold this average on any pullback. For a trailing stop the 50-bar 15 min has held the move pretty well, you can of course go tighter, but you cut down the ability for AMD to consolidate and move higher if it has it in it with a tighter stop.

All in all, still love AMD long here. I'd keep an eye on it for a potential long opportunity as well.