Futures in to the open

Beyond yesterday's 22 point drop from ES highs to lows, the overnight session has been fairly quiet except some movement in the EUR/USD which thus far hasn't been reflected much in the equity index futures.

 Here's the triangle in the EUR/USD from yesterday, we saw an initial slight break lower and I warned not to assume that was the final move, that we may in fact see a Crazy Ivan shakeout (the downside and upside of the triangle) which appears to be what we are seeing so far.


 EUR/USD futures saw a positive divergence last night just before the European open around 1:30 a.m., since a slight negative divergence has set in.

 ES is almost perfectly in line, but compared to the Euro, it's just off its lows and lower than the FX legacy arbitrage correlation would suggest.

NASDAQ futures have a slight positive divergence in to the open.

My early thoughts are that the EUR/USD sees some downside while ES and NQ see some initial upside in trying to reach equilibrium with the currency pair.