Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Opening Indications

So far no big surprises, in fact the pre-market Futures divergences were surprisingly accurate this early. We'll also look at FX and the averages.

 The EUR/USD as shown in the Futures pre-market post (1 min) did see a positive divergence about an hour or two before the European open late last night (actually very early this morning), but by the time the US pre-market was open there was a negative divergence in the pair, which isn't that surprising as I warned and suspected that the move around that triangle yesterday would not be a simple one-way affair, there's too much money to be made by shaking it out both ways and with price so near the apex of the triangle, the distance price needs to travel to shake out both sides is much smaller.

There's some very early weakness in the pair as they seem to be in a sort of H&S intraday top.

 Here's the pair just slipping under the channel that moved above the triangle from yesterday overnight, after first having slipped slightly under it yesterday-thus my warning of a Crazy Ivan shakeout (we have 2 of 3 elements in place now for that to be complete).

 ES futures were very close to being almost perfectly in line, a small positive divergence after the open sent ES briefly higher to new overnight recovery highs, that has started to chop around as the early TICK readings again today are moving more to the volatile side with a +1000 and -1000 move seen already this early in the day.

 NASDAQ futures did have a clear, but small positive divergence pre-market, there was a brief move higher on that before the futures just gave out a few minutes ago to the downside, again on extreme TICK readings.


 DIA 1 min with yesterday's opening negative divergence and in line status the rest of the day.

 There's a slight 2 min positive divergence that I would not discount yet until it is either run over or it is fulfilled.

 I had trouble choosing which longer term chart to use, 10, 15, 30 or even some 60 min charts, all with negative divergences, for the most part I stuck with the 10 min as it is the earliest and I'd want to pay attention to make sure there are no changes or surprises that would hit the 10 min chart first before the longer ones. The DIA is solidly negative for the trend (short term-week/s) despite the 2 min positive above.

 QQQ 1 min shows both the negative divergence on the open yesterday as well as a small positive divergence, again I would not discount this just yet.

 I chose the 15 min QQQ chart because it shows the larger accumulation cycle from mid October to mid-November which will come in to play at some point, but first we do have a negative divergence in place right now to the far right, it is smaller and that is why the trend table reads as it does- Short term trend down, sub-intermediate: up.

 Here's a closer look at the 15 min negative divergence as it is serious, it just gets a bit lost in the bigger picture.

 SPY 1 min negative on the open yesterday and in line the rest of the day.

 SPY 2 min shows the same slight positive divergence, which I wouldn't discount yet, but I also wouldn't ascribe too much importance to it.

The reason I wouldn't give it too much weight is again the 10 min leading negative divergence, there's very little chance that this divergence (which is on longer charts too) goes without any price response and with the size of the divergence, the price response should be quite strong.


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