Tuesday, December 4, 2012

We should see soon

If the last market update is correct or not, here's an example of the triangle I mentioned in the last update and how the setup works...
 On a 1 min SPY chart we have a clear downtrend, a symmetrical triangle found within a downtrend is considered by traders to be a consolidation/continuation pattern meaning it should break in the direction of the preceding trend and continue lower (typically the target is the distance between the last consolidation and this consolidation). Traders look for confirmation in price to enter trades so a break below the triangle is the confirmation they would look for to short the SPY and volume did pick up right as that happened.

Now the way Wall St. manipulates technical traders because they are so predictable, they run the move down, get the shorts in or the longs to sell on a stop out and then push prices back above the triangle which according to Technical Analysis tells traders it's a failed price pattern and they should reverse their trade, so now you have the shorts covering (adding to demand and pushing prices higher, which causes more shorts to cover) and longs see upside momentum and look to buy (adding more demand and upside pressure). Smart money can use all of this demand to sell or sell short in to at better prices with sufficient demand to move positions the size of theirs.

This doesn't have any bearing on the short term trend, it's just the intraday noise and manipulation of the market and traders, it's just how the game works.


Since the early morning positive divergence in the EUR/USD, it has seen several negative divergences and even the first break to the downside saw a move higher in to another negative divergence, but to traders all they see id the Euro holding up and stocks looking cheap comparatively.

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