Thursday, January 17, 2013

AAPL Update

I'm considering whether or not to close the rest of the AAPL Feb $485 call position, it's not that I don't think AAPL is done, it's just options have different mechanics that effect value than say a long position in the stock, there's volatility, time decay, etc. I typically use options for very high probability, but short term pushes and I'm wondering whether this push has had enough for the time being (I want to be out of options before a consolidation or correction-I can always start a new position at a better cost basis after the correction is complete).

Yesterday part of the position was closed for a 40% gain, some members playing weeklies had over 300% gains and left a lot more on the table.

I'll present the charts, but I also want to look at the market and the NDX specifically before deciding.

 The longer term and more important 15 min chart is still intact, still looking good and suggesting AAPL has more upside to come, that's not the issue, the issue is near term upside and volatility.

 On the intraday 1 min chart, AS USUAL, AAPL'S GAP THIS MORNING WAS SOLD IMMEDIATELY, this has been a trend with AAPL that has been mentioned many times, it's about as predictable as anything in the market could be.

The 2 min chart also shows the gap up being sold in to this morning right on the open and there's a slight leading negative position, if this migrates to a longer timeframe or gets worse, I'd really not want to be in calls.

 The 5 min timeframe is still ok, so again I think longer term AAPL is fine if you were long say, the stock itself and it may be fine for certain option positions and for the tolerance of certain option traders, this is more my preference and what has worked for me.

After the market update I'll likely decide.

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