Thursday, January 17, 2013

Another Big Hint

How many of you remember that phenomena we saw a few times in ES which I could only call, "A persistent divergence"?

The first time we saw it was Q1 of 2012 as the market was putting in a sub-intermediate top and we were building short positions, we saw it again, but this time positive June 1st of 2012.

Instead of the ES 1 min chart making the normal intraday calls, it just trended the opposite direction of price.

The first time I recall was Q1 of 2012 and here's at least 1 post on April 1 that talks about it (this is a large Sunday update post)

Here's a mention of the positive June 1st divergence.

The first one was a Sunday weekend update, the following Monday was the top of the market up to that point for 2012. The second was a positive version and the following day was 6/4, the bottom of the market for 2012.

Right now we are seeing the same thing in ES, the first time I think it lasted a few days.

It looks like this exactly.

The first time I saw it I had no idea what to make of it, I never saw that before and we had only been using it on ES for 6 months or so; I didn't know if the indicator was broken or what, but looking back, it called the top of the market and the bottom, it seems pretty clear it was persistent selling in to higher prices and persistent buying the second time in to lower prices which was also a head fake move.

And here we have it again...

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