Most often I'm not going to tell you about a trade that is breaking out and say, "I like this", by that time it's too late, the profit potential is too low, your risk is very high and the timing is way off.
Most often I'm going to tell you bout a trade set up that I expect because of something I see, if and when the trade starts to do the things I laid out in the original idea, then we look at execution of the trade, in this way we are in before the move starts at better or sometimes like with CAT, the best price, we have lower risk and much higher probabilities.
With regard to trend #1 which is one of 3 trends (actually there's hints of a 4th, but with the changing F_E_D outlook on QE recently I don't want to start looking that far out), although I've only really covered the first two as this is a rare event and I don't want to make it any more confusing than it already can be, I laid out several things we are looking for with regard to a downside reversal which at these levels, dovetails nicely in to trend #2.
Some of the things are obvious, like once we are above the level which happened briefly Friday and then yesterday a.m. and then again yesterday afternoon, to look for distribution in 3C. Another thing we want to see is our Leading Indicators turn negative. One of the odder things I want to see (as it's not normally something we watch for) is the S&P and NASDAQ futures 5 and 15 min charts turn negative. This is only 1 of several things I'm watching for, but we have it right now for the first time since trend #1 started.
All 4 charts finally have moved to the negative side.
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