Other Indications

I'm not including the Futures charts that I posted earlier. For the most part a lot of the leading indicators don't look like they are telling us much, these can move very quickly though. There are some interesting things going on in Treasuries and Volatility.

Remember I told you my gut feeling is that this reverses VERY fast, most likely intraday. We are still pretty early in the day, a lot can still happen assuming we aren't going to see an op-ex pin. Anyone else notice the range getting tighter and tighter today?

Here are the standard Leading Indicators...

 Commodities vs the SPX (comparison symbol is always the SPX and green unless otherwise noted), a little better relative performance today.

 This is a little longer 1 min view of commodities the last several days vs the $USD, commodities should move up when the $USD is moving down, as should equities.

 The Euro/FXE vs the SPX is tracking like these two normally track because of their high correlation.

 However the $AUD is under pressure, this is a negative divergence, but I'm taking this with a bit of a grain of salt considering the extraordinary recent activity in the Yen. Still I can't imagine this is a good signal for the market, normally it would not be.

 FCT, for whatever reason, it works, it's been back-tested. A ember mentioned this one to me; it' better on a longer term basis, but works intraday as well especially with sharp moves like this plunge down.

 Yields are largely in line which is their normal state, it's the divergences that tell us something.

***Since the capture of this chart, yields have plunged lower and are negatively divergence with the SPX.

 High Yield Corporate Credit is one that I REALLY want to see move to a divergent area, but we have to keep in mind also that HYG is seeing a tie right now for an all rime record in short interest so there may be a bit of a squeeze skewing this there.

Junk Credit below is also leading the SPX, if anything on an intraday basis this would be interpreted as a bullish divergence. HY credit is almost perfectly in sync with the SPX.

 Junk Credit vs the SPX.

 This is the NYSE TICK chart and it went from a very mellow +/- 750 range to an even tighter +/- 500 range, I can't recall seeing it this tight this long. This is very odd activity, I'm not sure what to make of it other than I suspect there's some algo programs hard at work today.

 As for the Daily Bollinger Bands and my DeMark inspired custom indicator, you can see the last buy signal, now we have a large sell signal, pretty much through most of trend 1.

 As for short term volatility futures, VXX, this 15 min chart's leading positive position is akin to the market average 15 min leading negative position I showed you a couple of posts back, in essence they confirm each other and just like the market average, I believe it was the QQQ needs to see the intraday charts go negative and meet up at the 15 min, volatility needs the same except positive. In any case this is good confirmation.

 Intraday the volatility futures are seeing positive behavior.

 The 15 min (longer term) Treasury / Flight to safety trade, also has a leading positive divergence, confirming the QQQ leading negative and volatility's leading positive 15 min.

Interestingly today...

Treasuries are seeing increased momentum in a 5 min positive divergence.

I wouldn't be surprised to see volatility up and down today, however I do wonder if there's some op-ex pinning action in the market?

In any case, AAPL still looks like it will move higher short term so I believe the market would draft it. There is some deterioration though which is what we wanted to see up here and it wasn't here earlier today.