Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Financials

I almost get the feeling, although I don't have strong enough charts to say I would trade it, that the market will see an early F_O_M_C knee-jerk to the upside, remember the initial reactions are wrong more often than not, much more often in fact.

BIDU givs me that sense and Financials to a lesser degree give me that sense, but I think I would consider the risk:reward situation right here favorable for a Financial short, whether short XLF or long FAZ, there's plenty of downside and with halfway decent risk management, any upside if there's a surprise out of the F_E_D can easily be contained at a loss less than 1-2% of portfolio if you are using fairly robust risk management, obviously the more leverage, the more dangerous unless you bring down the risk with smaller position sizing. In any case I think there will probably be enough volatile chop back and forth to get in to whatever position you want to with a little patience.

 Very short term Financials 1 min intraday, this is part of the reasonI'm thinking initial spike that is later faded, but the F_O_M_C rally became a wildcard today with GDP printing negative.

 This is some of the early damage in Financials I mentioned...

 And here's more, this is a 5 min chart, there's also been this recent momentum to the downside in 3C this week, I keep thinking about credit falling off a cliff too.

 FAS the 3x long Financials 15 min chart, this is kind of what it should look like in to trend #1 considering its length, this is a really bad looking 15 min chart, this is hard to ignore and not have some exposure to financials short.

FAZ -3x short Financials- Recent strength in FAZ, particularly this morning... Again another indication of the early market weakness.

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