Pre-Market

Overnight ES hasn't moved much, it's at the same level as yesterday's close, it had a pretty ugly divergence early in the night, around 8 p.m.-11 p.m., but the 5 min chart is what caught my attention for a couple of reasons combined with the fact ES did manage to stay up, there's often an overnight reversal like yesterday, but even beyond that and it's showing in NQ as well.

 The area of interest on 5 min ES which is a stronger time period than it is on the averages, compare to the area on the left which is out of scale, below I correct that with a rollback...

 This is the area on the left in scale so the current already leading negative 5 min is actually quite a bit deeper than it looks on the above chart.

NQ shows the same.


The Euro managed a move higher after the ECB conducted a 3 month LTRO and only got a hit of about 37% of the expected $10 bn Euro draw.

The move on the LTRO completion and trade this week for the FX pair.

Otherwise Europe is generally a mess with Spanish final GDP coming in weaker than expected, but that full year GDP was tempered with Italy's ability to place some debt below the last auction's yield. The French are complaining about the Euro's strength as it kills exports, when the Germans start complaining Draghi will have to act.

In the US, Q4 GDP missed bad with a -.1 print on expectations of a +1.1 and down from Q3's +3.1!!! We're now in the same spot as germany, 1 more negative print and the "R" word comes out, that was the downward spike in ES this morning.

In other news, BA missed on revs. I can't wait to see next quarter with the Dreamliner fiasco.

We of course have  the big event, the FOMC.

I'm not even going to comment on the ADP release this morning or probably ever again as they are usually no better than throwing a dart at a series of numbers.

Until the F_O_M_C , it's all noise, but we have caught a few obvious leaks before as the policy statement is released to the media ahead of time on an embargo, the BLS does the same and admits the data gets leaked so it's possible.