Monday, January 14, 2013

Market Update

We'll skip opening indications, there really wasn't much to see; a bit like Friday, this market is pretty slow, the TICK chart shows that pretty clearly and there really isn't a lot economically today, earnings pick up tomorrow so we may see more action toward the end of the day today.

Here's what we have so far and I'm going to use the SPY as an example because every average looks very similar, the theme is the same among the majors.

 The 1 min positive divergence this morning is only a relative divergence, the weakest kind so it's not anything that is disturbing our expectations.

 Take a look at the leading negative in the 2 min chart, there's nothing positive here.

 And that is migrating over to the 5 min chart.

Finally most importantly, the 15 min chart leading negative, most of this is all above the 1/4 highs as anticipated.

Based on these signals alone, I'd definitely want some short coverage and we do have short positions already put together for trend 2. The thing to consider is whether they try to bang the close or afternoon trade with the VIX, even if they do, I'd still be leaning toward a portfolio that is definitely biased toward the short side. I'll look at the VIX indications and see if there's anything there as well as some of the inverse market ETFs like SQQQ, SPXU, UDOW, FAZ, etc. They should be showing some things to.


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