I'm putting these out in 3 separate posts because some of you need the most current information fast, but I'd prefer to put this all out in 1 post so everything can be seen in context, a 1 or 2 min positive divergence can look impressive, but if it's not seen within context it can be very misleading and cause you to miss opportunities, to get worried about something that's inconsequential or not take something serious that is consequential.
As most of you know, the 1-3 min timeframes are largely intraday, they can give larger signals when viewed as a trend and they can move the market overnight and a little beyond (we've seen that a few times last week with closing divergences). The 5 min chart is where heavier activity first really starts to show up. 10-15 min charts have called some pretty decent size moves, the 30-60 min charts are really telling you more about the real health of an issue and which way the shorter charts are biased, which way the probabilities are skewed to.
OK, so here's intraday charts, they can move fast so some may have already changed and I'll try to note that if it's the case. I've noticed some short term rotation or at least what I would call differences in relative performance (as far as the signals go).
DIA 1 min has a 1 min negative divergence here, when I mention relative performance (re: 3C) compare this to the QQQ 1 or 2 min charts.
DIA 2 min is in a leading negative divergence, this is the second in a row.
This 5 min chart gives a broader summary of the intraday charts above, again I think it's important to realize that the signals really start developing only AFTER the SPX moves above the highs of 1/4 on 1/10. The reason is not so I can say, "See I told you so", the reason is that there's information there that is important, like AMZN above resistance, it's the same concept because this is how the market behaves out of necessity, tha'ts why it was easy to predict it.
IWM 1 min with very recent improvement, this still looks the same.
IWM 2 min, note the relative performance difference between this 2 min IWM chart and the DIA above. This looks slightly better, very slight.
The 5 min chart is what I'd call close to in line or flat, the most recent bias is more positive, but not by much.
QQQ negative through Friday afternoon and in to the close, this intraday divergence did not materialize Friday, but it seems obvious that it was being set up for Monday's open, remember the market makers, specialists, HFTs, etc are experts in reading the tape, seeing the depth of the entire book, they have a good idea of what is coming and considering Market Makers on the NASDAQ alone, they use to be responsible for about 30% of the day's volume simply trading their own accounts. All of those nickels and dimes add up. This looks a little different, but I don't think the interpretation would differ much, it's slightly positive intraday.
QQQ 2 min, this is stronger now, it has made another higher high in 3C which would now be the highest on this chart. Again, it seems Friday inventory was adjusted or sold and right now it's being adjusted and bought, but keep in mind how short term Friday's adjustment was (the % move in the QQQ and duration).
The 3 min chart I would think would see some positive bleed over or migration, that's not the case, this tells us that so far the signals above are not that strong.
SPY 1 min had 1 leading positive area earlier, it's been in line since, it still is.
This is the intraday NYSE TICK chart above, much like last week, especially Friday, this is VERY flat, very boring. The TICK is the number of NYSE advancing issues minus the declining issues, there are very few times it is range bound inside +750 and -750, that reading is almost like saying there's complete balance and there's no bullish or bearish edge among stocks actual performance. This chart is currently at +51 (of all NYSE stocks this minute there are 51 more that are advancing than declining, ZERO would be absolute balance between the two).
SPY 2 min is seeing a sharper 2leading negative divergence.
Now you can see the difference in relative performance, DIA not so good, the IWM between as well as the Q's and the SPY pretty flat. If all of the averages can't get it together and look the same way on at least the intraday charts, there's a pretty fractured market.
The next update will put these charts in context of at least trend #1 & # 2.
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