Market Update

There's still a lot of strangeness intraday in just about all of the averages, it looks to me like the averages are being held right in place through a series of 1 min positive and negative divergences, these are intraday and the least influential, but they often act (when positive) as consolidation areas rather than a move up. Why they'd be keeping prices flat in this area is beyond me.

I do not feel comfortable leaving the SPY/QQQ calls (they are at 1/2 size as the other half was closed earlier) at their current size and would like to see some intraday upside to close at least another half.

Each average is a bit different right now, this makes some sense because each were showing different levels of relative performance in underlying trade before the move up, the most obvious example is the QQQ on Friday showing strong  underlying trade and the reason I went for a QQQ Call position Friday, even in to that very uncertain weekend. So that's an example of underlying trade acting differently before the move up so I expect the same now.

However it is still kind of strange, I'll use the QQQ as an example. I will note that a move above resistance in the SPY and DIA in my view is almost a certainty, there are too many reasons for them not to take out that area and perhaps that is partially what this range today is about, getting those orders piled up and in place.

 QQQ 1 min 3C chart intraday with a number of small positive and negative divergences, it almost looks like slight corrections here and there to keep a flat range, the only reason I can think of to keep a flat range instead of selling in to strength, is to get retail to place their orders above the intraday high, then they could sell in to strength and also make all the money that comes along with that breakout (the bid/ask spread, the volume rebates, etc).

 The 2 min chart for all purposes is telling us almost nothing except that the 1 min divergences aren;t that strong as they didn't migrate to the 2 min chart, again suggesting minor corrections to keep price in a range.

What I did see that I'll have to investigate more is this negative divergence on a 15 min chart. It would be one thing if this was negative by way of non-confirmation, but it has actually moved down during the day, this would suggest larger positions are being distributed, but still in a piece-meal way.

I'll have to look closer in to that among the averages, futures, bellwethers and industry groups.

Also short term I'm not seeing the flight to safety trade in Treasuries see a lot of action, I may post Treasuries on their own.

More as I uncover it.