SPY and TLT

I still think we have more on the upside, that' why I'm still dragging my feet on closing the Call positions other than taking some profits earlier today on volatility.

When I look at the SPY, Treasuries, volatility, they all seem to be saying the same thing, "Not yet" and remember the first trend which was a sharp move up and "shorter'-much shorter" relative to trend 2 and 3, but that still doesn't tell us how short, it has been 2 days thus far and that's really not that much time honestly.

SPY...

 In the last post I said the underlying trade in each average is different, QQQ was strong last week and that played out today in price strength relative to the other averages, now the SPY which didn't make the break above resistance is showing better relative strength in 3C in to the afternoon, it needs something the Q's already have or have done.

 3 min, even though the bigger picture is no confirmation and thus a large leading negative divergence, intraday we see 3C moving up (white box).

 Since the 11/16 cycle started, the 10 min chart which is more representative of trend 2 is in a large leading negative divergence, I even commented on how much larger the divergence would be if price popped as we expected from trend 1 and here it is, even bigger and on a much more important timeframe.

TLT-Treasuries-The Flight to Safety Trade

 Here on the 2 min we see money moving out of the safe haven and in to risk assets with this nasty negative divergence, they had some timing huh? There's a small positive today, but this is not the flood of money flowing back in to safety and out of risk assets and that's what we have been seeing in the averages all day so it confirms.

 5 min, again an intraday head fake move in to heavy distribution as money went to risk assets, again today some positive divergences, but nothing at all like a mass migration back to safety, this tells me the risk on trade or Trend 1 as we have been calling it and expecting, is still alive.

This 15 min chart is representative of trend 2, there are large leading positive divergences including today, so when viewed in this light, Trend 2 looks as if it will play out next (market to the downside), but it seems we are not done with trend 1 and I predicted this first thing this morning based on simple market behavior, there's too much money to be made, it's a much stronger set up to just hit those orders above resistance in the SPY/DIA.